Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Is AI a bubble? In this episode, I unpack a new five-gauge framework for understanding the biggest question in tech.
Drawing on lessons from past manias – railways, telecoms, the dot-com boom – and grounding our analysis in fresh data, we examine economic strain, revenue growth, valuations, and the quality of capital fueling AI’s ascent. This is our effort to cut through hype and fatalism to provide a clear dashboard: where today’s AI build-out looks like a genuine boom, and where early warning signs of bubble dynamics may be emerging.
Whether you’re an investor, policymaker, or executive, this framework offers a disciplined way to navigate the noise.
Jump to the best parts:
(00:29) Echoes of the past
(01:31) The 5 gauge framework
(01:54) Gauge #1: Investment intensity
(03:45) Gauge #2: Monetization level
(04:48) Gauge #3: Revenue trajectory
(06:23) Gauge #4: Valuation level
(07:24) Gauge #5: Quality of capital
(10:10) Overall assessment
Produced by EPIIPLUS1 and Supermix.
Thanks to my team: Nathan Warren, Hannah Petrovic, Chantal Smith & Marija Gavrilov
About Exponential View:
Welcome to Exponential View, where Azeem Azhar examines how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping the future. Each week, Azeem shares his analysis or speaks with an expert guest to shed light on frontier shifts across technology, business and society.
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Where to find me:
Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/
Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
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Production by EPIIPLUS1.
Production and research: Baba Films, Marija Gavrilov.
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